论文部分内容阅读
根据杭州地区2006—2015年大豆豆荚炭疽病调查资料,建立了大豆豆荚炭疽病中期预测模型:y=-55.614 45+2.133 0x_2+22.252 67x_3+0.081 61x_1~2-4.974 81x_3~2(P≤0.01,R~2=0.723 4)。式中x_1是结荚后10 d的平均气温,x_2是结荚后5 d平均雨量,x_3是结荚后5 d雨日数,y是成熟期的病情指数。通过2010—2015年实际监测数据对模型进行验证,预测准确率为83.33%。本模型适合于杭州地区的对大豆豆荚炭疽病的预测。
According to the investigation data of anthrax of soy bean pods from 2006 to 2015 in Hangzhou area, the interim prediction model of soybean pod anthracnose was established: y = -55.614 45 + 2.133 0x_2 + 22.252 67x_3 + 0.081 61x_1 ~ 2-4.974 81x_3 ~ 2 (P≤0.01, R ~ 2 = 0.723 4). Where x_1 is the average temperature at 10 days after node pod, x_2 is the average rainfall at 5 days after node pod, x_3 is the number of rain days at 5 days after node pod, and y is the disease index at maturity. The model was verified by actual monitoring data from 2010 to 2015, and the prediction accuracy was 83.33%. This model is suitable for the prediction of soybean pod anthrax in Hangzhou area.