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由于政治和(或)所使用的计算方法等原因,再加上大多数情况下油、气田储量是保密的,因此各国公开发布的储量数据往往不可靠。此外。世界原油产量中大约有80%来自1973年以前发现的油田,其中绝大我数较大油田的产量正在递减。鉴于以上这些因素,本文介绍一种计算可靠的储量估算值的最佳方法,即绘制年产量与累计产量的线性递减曲线,并外推到油、气田全部枯竭,以此来估算储量。如果油、气田达到产量高峰。但还没有出现明显的产量递减,那么一条好的经验则就是把年产置峰值乘以15。
Due to political and / or computational methods used, coupled with the fact that oil and gas reserves are confidential in most cases, publicly available reserves are often unreliable. In addition. About 80% of the world’s crude oil output comes from the oilfields discovered before 1973, of which the production of the largest oilfields in the world is declining. In view of the above factors, this article presents an optimal method for calculating reliable reserves estimates by plotting the linear decline of annual and cumulative yields and extrapolating them to exhaustion of oil and gas fields to estimate reserves. If oil, gas fields reach peak production. But no obvious decline in production, then a good rule of thumb is to multiply the annual production peak by 15.