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基于产业安全理论和产业现状,建立对外依存度、国际竞争力等四维度汽车产业安全评价体系。根据1998—2013年数据,基于BP神经网络模型,结合灰色预测GM(1,1)模型与主成份分析法对我国汽车产业安全现状进行了量化评价、结果检验与安全度预测。结果表明:汽车产业发展初期,受产业国际竞争力利好形势带动,安全度不断提升;近几年,产业国际竞争力提升缓慢,市场控制力下降、依存度上升,安全度增速下降,预测未来五年汽车产业安全程度将呈下滑趋势。
Based on the theory of industrial safety and the status quo of the industry, a four-dimensional safety evaluation system for the automobile industry such as foreign dependence and international competitiveness is established. Based on the BP neural network model and the gray forecasting GM (1,1) model and the principal component analysis method, the current situation of automobile industry safety in our country is quantitatively evaluated, the result of the test and the prediction of safety are based on the data of 1998-2013. The results show that in the early stage of automobile industry, driven by the favorable international competitiveness of the industry, the safety is continuously improved. In recent years, the international competitiveness of the industry has been slowed down, the market control power has been declining, the degree of dependence increased, the rate of safety declined, Five-year auto industry will show a downward trend in safety.