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分别于2009、2010和2011年通过虫情测报灯对云南芒市二化螟种群动态进行了全年监测,并就气候因子对二化螟种群变动的影响进行了系统分析。结果表明,每年3~10月芒市均有二化螟发生,其他月份不发生。全年的种群动态呈双峰型,其最高峰出现在9月。相关分析表明,种群数量变动与月平均温度、月极端最低气温、雨日数和土壤湿度呈正相关,与日照时数呈负相关,且各相关性极显著。经逐步回归分析,影响种群数量变动的气象因子主要是月极端最低气温、雨日数和土壤湿度,其综合影响程度为79.34%。偏相关分析表明,二化螟种群数量变动与月极端最低气温和土壤湿度呈高度正相关,与雨日数呈中度负相关。3种气象因子对种群变动的作用大小分别为土壤湿度>月极端最低气温>雨日数。通径分析表明,月极端最低气温的直接作用对种群数量影响最大,并起着决定作用。总之,种群数量的变动与月极端气候、土壤湿度和雨日数有着密切的联系。
The population dynamics of the rice stem borer, Chilo suppressalis, in Yunnan Province, were monitored in 2009, 2010 and 2011 respectively. The impact of climatic factors on the population dynamics of Chilo suppressalis was systematically analyzed. The results showed that the occurrence of Chilo suppressalis occurs in Mangshan City from March to October every year, and does not occur in other months. The annual population dynamics showed a bimodal pattern, the highest peak in September. Correlation analysis showed that the population change was positively correlated with monthly average temperature, monthly minimum temperature, rain days and soil moisture, negatively correlated with sunshine hours, and the correlations were extremely significant. After a stepwise regression analysis, the meteorological factors affecting the population change were mainly the monthly extreme minimum temperature, the number of rain days and the soil moisture, and the comprehensive influence degree was 79.34%. Partial correlation analysis showed that the population variation of the stem borer was highly positively correlated with monthly minimum temperature and soil moisture, and negatively correlated with the number of rain days. The effects of the three meteorological factors on population fluctuation were soil moisture> monthly extreme minimum temperature> rain days. Path analysis shows that the direct effect of monthly minimum temperature has the greatest effect on the population size and plays a decisive role. In summary, changes in population numbers are closely linked with monthly extreme weather, soil moisture and rain days.