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已有研究对分析师预测分歧如何影响公司价值的实证证据存在矛盾。本文将分析师预测分歧与投资者认知提升公司价值的投资者认知效应结合起来,发现分析师预测分歧通过调节投资者认知效应对公司价值产生的负向影响主要体现信息不对称的作用,这种调节作用在国有企业中体现明显,并会受到较低信息不确定水平的制约;负向调节作用受到抑制的同时,分析师预测分歧对投资者认知效应的正向调节作用体现出来,这符合公司特有风险的作用机制;当投资者难以对企业未来做出准确预期的情况下,分析师预测分歧对认知效应的负向调节,可能导致投资者认知对公司价值的正向影响变为负向,与Miller的异质信念效应相符。
Research has contradicted the empirical evidence that analysts predict how disagreements affect firm value. In this paper, we combine analysts ’predictive differences with investors’ cognition effects that investors ’perceptions enhance the value of the company. They find that analysts’ predictions of the negative effects of disagreements on the company’s value through adjusting investor’s cognitive effects mainly reflect the role of information asymmetry . This moderation effect is obvious in state-owned enterprises and will be constrained by the low level of information uncertainty. While the negative regulation is restrained, analysts predict that the positive regulatory role of disagreements on investors’ cognitive effects is manifested , Which is in line with the mechanism of the company’s unique risk. When investors find it hard to accurately predict the future of the company, analysts predict that the negative adjustment of the disagreement on the cognitive effect may lead investors to perceive the positive The effect turned negative, consistent with Miller’s heterogeneous belief effect.