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宏观税负是指一个国家的税负总水平,是衡量一个国家总体税收负担水平的重要指标。本文首先基于Barro内生经济增长理论与动态规划最优增长模型,得出我国最优宏观税负的测算公式。其次,构建实证研究模型,运用索洛残差法、永续盘存法对1990至2013年的基础数据进行相关计算与处理的基础上,得出我国最优宏观税负水平为23.4057%。再次,通过测算我国大、中、小口径的宏观税负水平,结合实证研究得出的最优宏观税负结论,分析我国宏观税负水平。最后,根据结论对我国宏观税负问题提出了针对性的建议,并讨论了论文成果适用的范围与条件以及进一步研究参考的相关问题,有利于更加理性地看待当前中国的宏观税负水平,对我国经济持续健康发展具有重要的意义。
The macro tax burden refers to the total tax burden of a country and is an important indicator to measure the overall tax burden of a country. Based on Barro’s endogenous economic growth theory and the optimal growth model of dynamic programming, this dissertation draws the formula of the optimal macro-tax burden in China. Secondly, build the empirical research model, use Solow residual method and perpetual inventory method to calculate and process the basic data from 1990 to 2013, and find that the optimal macro-tax burden in our country is 23.4057%. Thirdly, by analyzing the macroscopic tax burden of China’s large, medium and small-caliber, combined with the conclusion of the optimal macro-tax burden obtained from the empirical research, the macro-tax burden of China is analyzed. Finally, according to the conclusion, we put forward some suggestions on the macro-tax burden in our country, discuss the scope and conditions of the application of the paper’s results and the related problems of further research and reference, which is beneficial to a more rational view of the current macro-tax burden in China. The sustained and healthy development of our economy is of great significance.