针对导弹武器系统试验评定的问题 ,研究了如何在命中精度评定中应用贝叶斯方法。在导弹落点偏差分布为正态 -逆伽马分布的假设下 ,提出以贝叶斯理论为基础 ,利用实际的导弹飞行试验状态信息和试验前的各种已知信息 ,加入弹道的模拟和仿真方法 ,获得评定的验前分布参数 ,使精度评定理论与实际情况相结合的方案。该方案以使用方提出的可信度和最低可信下界为检验精度的指标 ,同时也提出一种运用参数自助 (Bootstrap)方法获得验前分布参数的方法。最后 ,提供了完整的评定流程和说明 ,使实际的评定工作有一个较完整的体系。所提的贝叶斯方法尤其适合于小子样场合下的试验鉴定工作 Aiming at the problem of missile weapon system test evaluation, this paper studies how to apply Bayesian method in hit accuracy assessment. Based on the Bayesian theory and using the actual missile flight test status information and various known information before the test under the assumption that the missile landing point deviation distribution is a normal-inverse gamma distribution, the ballistic simulation and Simulation method to obtain the pre-test distribution parameters, the accuracy of the theory and the actual situation of the program combined. The proposed scheme uses the confidence level and the lowest confidence bound proposed by the user as the index of the test accuracy. At the same time, a method of using the Bootstrap method to obtain pre-test distribution parameters is proposed. Finally, provide a complete assessment process and description, so that the actual assessment of a more complete system. The proposed Bayesian method is particularly suitable for the experimental identification of small sample applications