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本文建立了考察股市运行失衡与宏观经济运行态势背离的分析框架。作者认为,只有将股市放到宏观经济运行的大背景下,从股市与宏观经济的互动机制角度来考察,才能全面认识和把握股市运行的规律。因此,本文从股票价格波动、通货膨胀、股票市场规模等角度进行了系统分析。通过与美国、韩国股市有关实证分析结果的比较,本文提出,正是由于中国股市的经常性失衡,完善市场经济条件下股票市场与宏观经济运行的正常互动关系才被打乱,表现为股市不能正常反映宏观经济波动状况,二者走势出现明显的异动和背离。
This article has set up an analytical framework that examines the deviation of the stock market from the macroeconomic situation. The author believes that only by putting the stock market under the macroeconomic background and by examining the interaction mechanism between the stock market and the macroeconomy, can we fully understand and grasp the law of stock market operation. Therefore, this paper systematically analyzes the stock price volatility, inflation and the stock market scale. Through the comparison with the empirical analysis of the stock markets in the United States and South Korea, this paper proposes that it is precisely because of the regular imbalance in the Chinese stock market that the normal interaction between the stock market and macroeconomic operations is disrupted under the conditions of a market economy. Normally reflect the macroeconomic fluctuations in the status of the two showed significant changes and deviations.