分析了反舰导弹自控终点散布误差和目标指示信息误差两个因素对目标捕捉概率的影响,对比了目前反舰导弹目标捕捉概率的几种相关计算模型,提出了利用极坐标计算自控终点散布概率的方法。在对一种反舰导弹一次捕捉概率为1的计算模型进行研究的基础上,将导弹等效落点区域进行离散化处理,提出了新的目标捕捉概率解析计算模型,计算了一定捕捉概率下两种模型对雷达搜索范围及目指信息精度的要求,并以蒙特卡洛仿真法作为参照,结果表明新模型的数据更为准确。 This paper analyzes the influence of the self-controlled terminal scattering error of the anti-ship missile and the error of the target indication information on the target capture probability. Comparing with the current related calculation models of the anti-ship missile target capture probability, Methods. Based on the research on the computational model of an anti-ship missile capturing probability 1 at a time, the equivalent landing area of ​​the missile is discretized, a new target capturing probability analysis and calculation model is proposed and a certain probability of capturing The requirements of the two models for radar search range and accuracy of target information are compared with Monte Carlo simulation method. The results show that the new model is more accurate.