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企业成立时的初始规模和生产率对于企业的生存发展具有重要影响。本文利用1995～2009年间上海市24297家新成立的规模以上工业企业数据,采用COX风险比例模型和指数回归(PH)方法,研究了初始规模、生产率对企业生存发展的影响。研究发现,初始规模、生产率均对企业生存发展有着显著的非线性影响,初始规模越大,企业风险率越低,生存时间越长,但这种影响的边际效应递减;初始生产率与企业生存时间存在U型曲线,即低效率和高效率企业的生存时间较长,而中等效率企业的生存时间较短。非技术密集型企业的生存时间对企业的初始规模更为敏感,而技术密集型企业的生存时间受初始生产率影响更为显著。
The initial scale and productivity of the enterprises have an important impact on the survival and development of the enterprises. Based on the data of 24297 newly-established industrial enterprises above designated size in Shanghai from 1995 to 2009, the paper uses COX risk proportional model and index regression (PH) method to study the influence of initial scale and productivity on the survival and development of enterprises. The results show that the initial scale and productivity all have significant nonlinear effects on the survival and development of enterprises. The larger the initial scale, the lower the enterprise risk rate and the longer the survival time, but the marginal effect of such effects decreases. The initial productivity and business survival time There is a U-shaped curve, that is, enterprises with low efficiency and high efficiency have longer survival time, while medium-efficiency enterprises have shorter survival time. The survival time of non-technology-intensive enterprises is more sensitive to the initial scale of the enterprises, while the life-time of technology-intensive enterprises is more significantly affected by the initial productivity.