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本文构建了一个包含消费者异质性的三部门新凯恩斯模型,引入商品税率、劳动所得税率、资本所得税率、社保费率冲击,实证研究了商品税率、劳动所得税率、资本所得税率及社保费率变化对宏观经济波动的贡献率及动态效应。研究发现:1.商品税率冲击对主要宏观经济变量波动的贡献率最大,其程度达到89%以上,而劳动所得税率冲击和社保费率冲击对宏观经济波动的影响较小;2.降低税费有助于刺激经济增长,而劳动所得税率和社保费率下降更有利于经济稳定与增长;3.税费减免政策有利于提高财政的可持续性;4.通货膨胀是一种“财政—货币”现象,且通货膨胀主要是成本推动型。为此,本文提出以下建议:我国政府应该加大减税力度,以降低劳动所得税率和社保费率为主,来稳定宏观经济增长,并辅以基准利率的提高来抵抗通货膨胀的压力。
This paper constructs a new Keynesian model of the three-sector including consumer heterogeneity, introduces the tax rate of commodity, labor income tax rate, capital income tax rate, impact of social security premiums, empirical study of the commodity tax rate, labor income tax rate, capital income tax rate and social insurance premium Contribution Rate and Dynamic Effect of Rate Change on Macroeconomic Fluctuation. The findings are as follows: 1. The impact of commodity tax rate on the volatility of the major macroeconomic variables is the largest, reaching more than 89%, while the impact of the labor income tax rate and the impact of the social security rate on the macroeconomic volatility is relatively small. 2. Help to stimulate economic growth, while the labor income tax rate and the decline in social security rates more conducive to economic stability and growth; 3. Tax relief policies will help improve financial sustainability; 4. Inflation is a “financial - Currency ”phenomenon, and inflation is mainly cost-push type. To this end, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: Our government should increase tax cuts to reduce the labor income tax and social security premiums mainly to stabilize macroeconomic growth, supplemented by the benchmark interest rate increase to resist the pressure of inflation.