论文部分内容阅读
一季度,尽管我国遭遇罕见的冰雪灾害,面对美国次贷危机影响不断加深的严峻复杂国际形势,但中国经济仍继续保持平稳快速发展态势,出现了贸易不平衡有所改善、货币信贷增速放缓、国内需求稳步增长等符合宏观调控预期要求的发展情况。但与此同时,也存在着价格上涨较多,流动性过剩加剧,房地产价格过快上涨等矛盾和问题。展望二季度,美国次贷危机影响将继续蔓延,世界经济增速将进一步放缓,全球通货膨胀压力继续加大。影响经济发展的不稳定与不确定因素还会增加。尽管存在外需减弱等不利因素,但我国外贸出口仍有可能稳定增长,国内消费需求和投资需求还会进一步增加,物价水平将有所降低,全年 GDP增速将在10.8%左右。与此同时,金融市场将继续稳定发展,利率上调可能性减小,人民币升值步伐趋缓,股票市场将在宽幅振荡中回暖上行,房地产价格将持续高位震荡态势,商业银行盈利压力有所加大,业务转型进一步加快。
In the first quarter, in spite of the rare snow disaster in our country and the severe and complicated international situation with the deepening impact of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, China’s economy continued to maintain a steady and rapid growth. As a result, the trade imbalance improved, and the growth in money and credit Slowing down and steady growth of domestic demand in line with the expectations of macroeconomic regulation and control. However, at the same time, there are also contradictions and problems such as more price hikes, more liquidity surges and soaring real estate prices. Looking into the second quarter, the impact of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis will continue to spread. The global economic growth will further slow down. The global inflationary pressure will continue to increase. Uncertainties and uncertainties that affect economic development will also increase. Despite the unfavorable factors such as the weakening external demand, China’s foreign trade exports are still likely to grow steadily, domestic consumer demand and investment demand will further increase, and the price level will be reduced. The annual GDP growth rate will be around 10.8%. In the meantime, the financial market will continue to develop steadily with less likely interest rate increases, a slower pace of RMB appreciation, a warmer stock market and a sustained upward volatility in real estate prices. As a result, profit pressures of commercial banks have risen Large, business transformation further accelerated.