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随着世界由“深度全球化向去全球化”转型,以“本地含量学说”或“本地含量论”为依据的经济政策占据了中心舞台。结果,全球经济表现不佳。本文考察了过去25年多来全球化的轨迹,并考察了关于直到2030年的种种预测前景中世界将呈现的面貌。作者回顾了冷战的结束如何使“深度全球化”成为可能,这一时期如何受到了市场经济和代议制民主的价值观、美国的一枝独秀、日本领头的亚洲崛起、地区性经济和政治一体化逻辑的引导。本文随后表明,我们现在为何正在遭遇一种“去全球化的风险”——西方举步为艰,美国岌岌可危,中国崛起,“民族国家”作为全球舞台的主导角色得以复兴。目前这一动态的突出标志,是一种“人人为己”的逻辑,按照这种逻辑,各国都将重新调整自己的战略,变为保护主义和个人主义的行动。
As the world shifts from “deep globalization to globalization,” economic policies based on “local content theory” or “local content theory” occupy the center stage. As a result, the global economy is underperforming. This article examines the trajectory of globalization over the past 25 years and looks at the face of what the world will look like for the forecast outlook until 2030. The author reviews how the end of the Cold War made possible the “deep globalization”. How did this period suffer from the values of market economy and representative democracy, the thriving United States, the rise of Japan in Asia, the logic of regional economic and political integration The guide. This article goes on to show why we are now experiencing a “risk of going global” - the West is struggling, the United States is at risk, the rise of China and the “nation-state” are revived as the dominant players in the global arena. At present, the prominent symbol of this dynamic is a kind of logic that everyone is the only one. According to this logic, all countries will readjust their strategies and become protectionist and individualist actions.