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本文利用最大熵原理估算了山西地震带中强震的重现期和未来100年内中强震的发震概率。经计算,五级地震的重现期是16.2年,发震概率是0.998;六级地震的重现期是64.9年,发震概率是0.777;七级地震的重现期是260.4年,发震概率是0.330;大于等于八级地震的重现期是1570.3年,发震概率是0.062。
In this paper, the maximum entropy principle is used to estimate the recurrence period of strong earthquakes in Shanxi seismic zone and the probability of moderate earthquakes in the next 100 years. According to the calculation, the recurrence period of the fifth-order earthquakes is 16.2 years, and the probability of the seismogenic event is 0.998. The recurrence period of the sixth-order earthquakes is 64.9 years and the probability of the seismogenic event is 0.777. The recurrence period of the Seismic Stage VII is 260.4 years. The probability is 0.330; the recurrence period of eight or more earthquakes is 1570.3 years, and the probability of earthquake occurrence is 0.062.