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为研究上海奉贤区渔民收入水平及变化,利用曲线回归、聚类分析等方法对2009年5月-2012年10月奉贤区定置张网渔船年产值及单位投网数产值(VPUE)等监测数据进行分析。结果显示:渔船产值逐年升高,2009年产值为20.57万元,2012年提高到31.35万元,增幅达到52.4%;VPUE呈现逐年增高之势,2009年为44.59元/网,2012年提升到61.98元/网,增幅接近40%。利用曲线回归估计法对产量与VPUE的相关性进行分析,发现两者无显著相关性(P=0.501>0.05),而产值与VPUE具有显著相关性(P=0.008<0.05),其关系可以用公式y=33.812lnx+5.3808表达。VPUE季节变化中,春季与夏、秋季均无显著性差异(P=0.093>0.05,P=0.165>0.05),而夏季与秋季存在显著性差异(P=0.008<0.05)。研究表明,渔民不能盲目地以提高总产量为目标来寻求经济效益最大化,而是应该提高渔获物中经济鱼类所占比例和产量,这不仅能够促进渔民增产增收,而且对于保护幼鱼资源,促进渔业资源的合理恢复也具有重要意义。
In order to study the income level and changes of fishermen in Fengxian District of Shanghai, the annual output value and VPUE of fixed-bed fishing vessels in Fengxian District from May 2009 to October 2012 were collected by using the methods of curve regression and cluster analysis. Analyze. The results showed that the output value of fishing vessels increased year by year, with the output value of 205,700 yuan in 2009 and 313.45 million yuan in 2012, an increase of 52.4%. VPUE showed a trend of increasing year by year, reaching 44.59 yuan / net in 2009 and 61.98 in 2012 Yuan / net, an increase of nearly 40%. The relationship between the yield and VPUE was analyzed by curve regression estimation. There was no significant correlation between the yield and VPUE (P = 0.501> 0.05), but the correlation between output and VPUE was significant (P = 0.008 <0.05) The formula y = 33.812lnx + 5.3808 expression. There was no significant difference in the seasonal changes of VPUE between spring and summer and autumn (P = 0.093> 0.05, P = 0.165> 0.05), but there was significant difference between summer and autumn (P = 0.008 <0.05). Studies have shown that fishers can not blindly seek to maximize economic benefits by maximizing total output, but instead should increase the proportion and output of economic fish in the catch, which not only can promote the increase of fishermen’s income and increase the income of young fish Resources and promoting the rational recovery of fishery resources are also of great significance.