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对能源消费碳排放驱动因子的定量分析是目前碳排放研究的热点之一,本文利用IPCC碳排放计算方法对武安市2002~2013年能源消费碳排放量进行了动态测算,并基于在环境经济研究中被广泛应用的STIRPAT模型计量拟合了能源消费碳排放与人口、人均GDP、能源强度、碳排放量强度、城镇化率的多元线性模型。结果表明能源消费碳排放量在研究阶段内呈逐年增长的趋势,而人口、人均GDP、城市化率、碳排放强度、与能源消费碳排放的弹性系数为0.295%、(-0.420+0.929InG)%(G为人均GDP)、0.255%、0.188%。能源强度每减少1%,能源消费碳排放将会减少0.056%。同时经济增长与能源消费碳排放之间并没有出现环境库兹涅茨(EKC)曲线特征。据此研究认为缓解环境矛盾可以从提高能源利用效率、调整能源消费结构、加大科技投入等入手。
The quantitative analysis of the drivers of carbon emissions from energy consumption is one of the hot topics in carbon emission research. In this paper, we use the IPCC method to calculate the carbon emissions from energy consumption in Wu’an from 2002 to 2013, The widely used STIRPAT model fits the multiple linear models of carbon emissions and energy consumption, population, GDP per capita, energy intensity, intensity of carbon emissions and urbanization rate. The results show that the carbon emissions from energy consumption show a trend of increasing year by year. The elasticity coefficient of population, per capita GDP, urbanization rate, carbon intensity and carbon emissions from energy consumption is 0.295% and (-0.420 + 0.929InG) % (G is GDP per capita), 0.255% and 0.188%. For every 1% reduction in energy intensity, carbon emissions from energy consumption will decrease by 0.056%. At the same time, there is no environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) curve between economic growth and energy consumption carbon emissions. Based on this research, it is considered that mitigating environmental conflicts can start with improving energy efficiency, adjusting energy consumption structure and increasing investment in science and technology.