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本文对东江博罗站近45年来天然径流量的变化和影响因素进行分析,结果表明:东江博罗站天然年径流量年际变化具有阶段性特征,东江博罗站年径流量变化存在着7年、22年的弱周期;太阳黑子数急剧增加时,东江博罗站径流量会相对的减少;在厄尔尼诺出现年时,东江博罗站径流量相对减少,而在厄尔尼诺次年,东江博罗站年径流量明显的增加,同时出现洪涝灾害的可能性也增大。
In this paper, the natural runoff of Dongjiang Boluo Station in 45 years has been analyzed. The results show that the interannual annual runoff of Boluo Station in Dongjiang River has periodic characteristics. The annual runoff of Boluo Station in Dongjiang River has 7 Year and 22-year weak period. When the number of sunspots increased sharply, the runoff of Dongjiang Boluo Station would decrease relatively. When El Niño appeared, the runoff of Dongjiang Boluo Station decreased relatively. However, in the following year El Niño, Station annual runoff increased significantly, while the possibility of flooding also increased.