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站在2001年的岁末,当前和即将面临的中国经济形势非常微妙而耐人寻味,甚至让人觉得扑朔迷离:当然有令人欣慰的一面:如果与突然失速并加速坠落的国际经济相比,即使已经呈现减速趋势的中国经济在2001年依然可以说是一枝独秀。有令人不能不忧虑的一面:如果与自身历史上持续、快速、波澜壮阔的经济增长相比,中国经济在2002年则可能会面临中国经济12年来最为严峻的岁月。这个复杂而微妙的经济格局,决定了2002年的中国经济走势难以呈现出晴空万里的气象。如果一定要简要地归结进入21世纪第二年的中国宏观经济形势的最大特点的话,那就是:逆风飞扬的中国经济将不得不面对艰难时势,中国经济将面临12年来最为严峻的岁月。在2002年中,中国经济可望借助 WTO 的春风,依托更加开放竞争的市场环境,喜滋滋迎来以汽车,住房等“重工消费品”为主导产业带动的新一轮的经济增长周期,同时确保国民经济在更加规范、开放与成熟的市场环境中运行:同时,在外需不足、内部体制改革难度加大等的环境下,GDP 的增长可能因外部需求进一步下滑和 WTO“先苦后甜”的正面冲击而突然刹车,增长率掉入12年来所未曾有过的低谷。复杂的局面需要高超的宏观政策驾驭水平。在总体上比较严峻的经济环境下,我们预计,中国2002年的宏观政策几乎肯定要进入中国历史上最宽松的时期。
At the end of 2001, the current and imminent economic situation in China is very subtle and intriguing, and even makes people feel complicated and confusing: Of course, there is a good news: if compared with the international economy that suddenly stalled and accelerated its fall, The Chinese economy showing a slowdown can still be said to be outstanding in 2001. There are some worries: If compared with the sustained, rapid and spectacular economic growth in its history, China’s economy may face the most serious years in China’s economy in 12 years in 2002. This complicated and delicate economic pattern has made it difficult for China’s economic situation in 2002 to show a clear sky. If we must concisely summarize the most notable feature of China’s macroeconomic situation in the second year of the 21st century, it is that the upwind economy will have to face tough times and the Chinese economy will face the worst in 12 years. In mid-2002, the Chinese economy is expected to take advantage of the spring breeze of WTO and rely on a more open and competitive market environment to welcome the new cycle of economic growth led by industries such as automobiles and housing with “heavy consumer goods” Ensure that the national economy will operate in a more regulated, open and mature market environment: at the same time, under the conditions of insufficient external demand and difficulty of internal structural reforms, the growth of GDP may be further dampened by external demand and WTO’s “ ”The sudden impact of a sudden brake, the growth rate fell into the 12 years have never been trough. Complex situations require superb macro-level control. In the overall harsh economic environment, we expect that the macroeconomic policies of China in 2002 will almost certainly enter the easiest period in Chinese history.