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掌握煤与瓦斯突出危险性和主要影响因素对突出防治至关重要。运用安全系统工程重要的系统分析方法——事故树分析法对“三软”煤层煤与瓦斯突出危险性进行系统分析,构建了“三软”煤层条件下煤与瓦斯突出的事故树,进行了定性分析和定量计算。结果表明,煤与瓦斯突出发生的概率为0.216 5,导致突出的可能途径有24种,预防突出的可能方案有5种,并计算出了各基本事件的结构重要度、概率重要度和临界重要度,确定了“三软”煤层中影响煤与瓦斯突出各因素的重要程度。
Grasping the danger of coal and gas outburst and the main influencing factors are crucial to the prevention and control. By using the method of fault tree analysis, which is an important systematic analysis method of safety system engineering, the coal and gas outburst danger of “three soft” coal seam are analyzed systematically, and the accident of coal and gas outburst under “three soft” seam conditions is established Tree, qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation. The results show that the probability of occurrence of coal and gas outburst is 0.2165, 24 kinds of possible ways to highlight, 5 kinds of possible solutions to prevent outburst, and the structural importance, probability importance and critical importance of each basic event are calculated Degrees, to determine the “three soft ” coal seam coal and gas outburst the importance of various factors.