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基于分形概念及其理论,利用重标极差(R/S)分析法分析了玛纳斯河多年径流量,计算了赫斯特系数(H)值和序列的分维数,并与其理论值进行了比较检验。依据赫斯特系数的突变点及Vτ的突变点,分析了年径流序列的分形特征、状态持续性及统计周期长度。结果表明,玛纳斯河年径流序列服从分形分布,具有长期的状态持续特性和18 a的统计周期长度,为本流域水资源合理规划与合理利用提供了统计参数,也为探索玛纳斯河年径流长程相关模型提供了新的思路。
Based on the concept of fractal and its theory, the annual runoff of Manas River was analyzed by R / S analysis. The fractal dimension of Hurst coefficient (H) value and sequence was calculated and compared with its theoretical value Conducted a comparative test. According to the abrupt point of Hurst coefficient and the mutation point of Vτ, the fractal characteristics, the state persistence and the statistical period length of annual runoff series are analyzed. The results show that the annual runoff sequence of Manas River obeys the fractal distribution, with long-term state continuous characteristics and statistical period length of 18 years, which provides statistical parameters for rational planning and rational utilization of water resources in this basin, The model of annual runoff long-range provides new ideas.