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本文将四川2004年1月至2009年8月各月的旅游统计数据进行季节调整后,利用旅游本底线法建立四川的入境旅游人数、旅游外汇收入、国内旅游人数和国内旅游收入的本底趋势方程。利用方程计算值与消除季节影响值之间的差值曲线图判断地震的影响时长及影响量。入境旅游受地震的影响,至今仍未恢复到正常水平,“5·12”地震使四川入境旅游人数和旅游外汇收入分别减少178.13万人次和46105.90万美元:而国内旅游影响时长为10个月,即2008年5月至2009年2月,“5·12”地震影响期间四川国内旅游人数和国内旅游收入损失量分别为2458.30万人次和272.41亿元。
Based on the seasonally adjusted tourism statistics of Sichuan from January 2004 to August 2009, this paper establishes the background trend of the number of inbound tourists, tourism foreign exchange earnings, domestic tourists and domestic tourism income in Sichuan using the tourism baseline method equation. Using the curve of the difference between the calculated value of the equation and the value of eliminating the seasonal impact to determine the influence duration and influence quantity of the earthquake. Inbound tourism was not affected by the earthquake so far and the earthquake has not returned to normal levels. The “5.1.12” earthquake reduced the number of inbound tourists and foreign exchange receipts in Sichuan by 1.7813 million and 46105.90 million respectively, while that of domestic tourism was 10 Month, that is, from May 2008 to February 2009, the loss of domestic tourism and domestic tourism revenue in Sichuan affected by the May 12 earthquake was 24.5830 million and 27.241 billion yuan respectively.