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本文利用2008年1月至2017年3月的月度数据,研究了中国股票市场的波动与宏观经济指标之间的相关关系。在此基础上,本文以2013年政府换届为节点,研究了经济结构的转型期间,上述相关关系是否也会相应地发生结构性的变化。本文的结果表明,近些年来中国的股票市场确实与宏观经济指标之间存在显著的相关关系。而且,这一相关关系在经济转型的过程中发生了明显的变化。更进一步的分析表明,这一变化反映了金融市场建设的深入和成熟,以及经济转型带来的影响,如国内经济从出口导向型转向内需等。
Using the monthly data from January 2008 to March 2017, this paper studies the correlation between the volatility of China’s stock market and macroeconomic indicators. On this basis, this article takes the change of government in 2013 as a node to study whether the above related relationship will also undergo structural changes correspondingly during the transition of economic structure. The result of this paper shows that there is a significant correlation between China’s stock market and macroeconomic indicators in recent years. Moreover, this correlation has undergone significant changes in the course of economic restructuring. Further analysis shows that this change reflects the deepening and maturity of financial market construction and the impact of economic restructuring, such as the shift of domestic economy from export-oriented to domestic demand.