近30 a以来,北京市平均年降水量和水资源总量较多年平均值分别减少了6.89%和31.37%,而总用水量在这期间达到了历史上的最高峰。对用水结构的准确分析和科学预测是制定水资源利用发展规划的基本前提和基础,也是进行产业结构调整和优化的主要依据,因此对于社会经济和资源环境的协调发展具有重要意义。在分析改革开放30 a来北京市总用水量、农业、工业、生活和环境用水量及用水结构演变规律的基础上,进一步揭示了总用水量和用水结构演变的驱动因子,最后对未来一段时期内总用水量和用水结构的演变趋势及其对未来水资源供需形势的影响作了预测和探讨,受工农业用水减少,以及生活和生态用水增加的影响,未来一定时期内总用水量将在现有约35×108m3/a的基础上继续缓慢平稳下降;南水北调水进京后在未来一定时期内将明显减轻北京市的供水压力。该研究成果将为协调社会经济发展与水资源的关系、制定合理的水资源战略规划和社会可持续发展提供科学依据。 Since the past 30 years, the average annual precipitation and total water resources in Beijing have dropped by 6.89% and 31.37% respectively over the annual average value, while the total water consumption reached the highest level in history during this period. Accurate analysis of water use structure and scientific prediction are the basic preconditions and foundations for formulating water resources utilization development planning as well as the main basis for industrial structure adjustment and optimization. Therefore, it is of great significance to the coordinated development of social economy, resources and environment. Based on the analysis of the total water consumption, agriculture, industry, living and environment water consumption and the evolution of water use structure in Beijing during the 30 years of reform and opening up, we further revealed the driving forces for the evolution of total water consumption and water use structure. Finally, The total internal water consumption and the evolution trend of water use structure and its impact on the future water supply and demand situation have been predicted and discussed by the reduction of water for agriculture and industry as well as the impact of increased living and ecological water use, the total amount of water consumption in a certain period of time in the future will be at The existing about 35 × 108m3 / a on the basis of a steady slow decline; South-North Water Transfer into Beijing after a certain period of time in the future will significantly reduce the water pressure in Beijing. The results of this research will provide a scientific basis for coordinating the relationship between socio-economic development and water resources, formulating sound water resources strategic planning and social sustainable development.