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中国对外直接投资(OFDI)持续快速扩张,已对长期作为经济增长驱动力的国内投资产生影响。鉴于此,本文将中国OFDI和国内投资(DI)纳入一个统一的分析框架,在分析两者相互影响内在机制的基础上,基于2003-2014年187个中国对外直接投资国(地区)的跨国数据,采用面板数据VAR模型从流量和存量两个方面实证研究了两者之间的互动效应。实证结果表明:OFDI流量与国内资本形成总额之间呈现出显著的相互促进效应;东道国人均OFDI存量对国内人均资本存量具有显著的正向效应,而反之则不显著。进一步考虑东道国经济发展异质性的结果显示:无论是流量还是存量分析,OFDI与国内投资的互动效应在发达国家相对较强,而在发展中国家相对较弱;相对而言,在发展中国家,国内投资对OFDI具有较强的促进效应,OFDI对国内投资的作用则较弱,而在发达国家则相反。最后,采用脉冲响应函数分析与方差分解分析展示OFDI与国内投资的相互作用过程。
OFDI continues to expand rapidly and has implications for domestic investments that have long been the driving force behind economic growth. In view of this, this article combines China’s OFDI and domestic investment (DI) into a unified analytical framework. Based on the analysis of the intrinsic mechanisms of mutual influence between the two, based on the cross-country data of 187 Chinese FDI countries (regions) from 2003 to 2014 , The panel data VAR model is used to empirically study the interaction effect between the two in traffic and stock. The empirical results show that there is a significant mutual promotion effect between the OFDI flow and the total domestic capital formation. The OFDI stock in the host country has a significant positive effect on the domestic stock of per capita capital while the other is not significant. Further considering the heterogeneity of economic development in the host country, the results show that the interaction between OFDI and domestic investment is relatively strong in developed countries and relatively weak in developing countries, both in terms of flow and stock analysis. In contrast, in developing countries , Domestic investment has a strong promotion effect on OFDI, while OFDI has a weak effect on domestic investment, while on the contrary in developed countries. Finally, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis are used to demonstrate the interaction between OFDI and domestic investment.