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基于中国冰川编目资料,应用冰川系统、零平衡线、冰川径流变化与冰川面积之间的关系以及冰川对环境变化的适应功能等理论,按几种不同升温率的气候情景,对全国各大流域冰川径流、面积、储量及平衡线高度等变化趋势进行预测。结果表明:平均来讲,21世纪前50年如果中国西部山区,以增温率为每年0.02K及0.03K计算,到2030年,全国冰川径流将达到最高潮,2030年后全国冰川径流将普遍回落,但至2050年仍将高于20世纪末的水平。如上述升温趋势一直维持下去,本世纪中国冰川的面积和储量将持续减少,到2030年,将减少6%~9%;到2050年减少10%~15%;到本世纪末,全国冰川径流将回落到1980年的水平以下,全国冰川面积将减少23.2%~34%。
Based on the data of glaciers in China, applying the theory of glacier system, zero balance line, the relation between glacier runoff and glacier area, and the adaptive function of glacier to the environmental change, several glacial basins Glacier runoff, area, reserves and balance line height trends are predicted. The results show that on average, the glacier runoff will reach the climax in 2030 if the warming rates are 0.02K and 0.03K per year in the western part of China in the first 50 years of the 21st century. By 2030 national glacier runoff will be widespread But it will still be higher than the level of the end of the 20th century by 2050. As the above warming trend has been maintained, the area and reserves of glaciers in China will continue to decrease this century, by 6% to 9% in 2030 and 10% to 15% in 2050; by the end of this century, Back to the level below 1980, the national glacier area will be reduced by 23.2% ~ 34%.