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为了研究金川二矿区大面积采场围岩整体的稳定性,根据对采场与地表破坏现象的调查与监测结果提出了大面积采场整体失稳的4种模式,确定了采场稳定性评价指标。设计了13因素3水平的数值正交试验方案,采取最小二乘法进行多元线性回归,获得了4个评价指标的评价函数,利用可靠度理论对各评价指标的采场稳定性可靠度进行分析和风险预测。结果表明,对于采场围岩整体稳定性系统,将4个评价指标以串联形式作为一个整体,计算出采场整体失稳风险概率达11.28%,采场围岩整体失稳有一定的可能性。
In order to study the stability of large area stope surrounding rock in Jinchuan No.2 mining area, four models of large-scale stope instability are proposed according to the investigation and monitoring results of stope and surface damage, and the stabilities of stope are determined index. The orthogonal experimental design of 13 factors and 3 levels was designed. The least square method was used to conduct multiple linear regression. The evaluation function of four evaluation indexes was obtained. The reliability of stope stability of each evaluation index was analyzed by using reliability theory. Risk prediction. The results show that for the whole stability system of stope surrounding rock, the four evaluation indexes are taken as a whole in series, the probability of risk of stope instability is calculated to be 11.28%, and the whole rock instability of stope is certain. .