本文以惠州市为例,构建了海洋生态承载力评价指标体系,分为压力类、支持力类和区域交流类3个目标层,包含人口、经济发展、环境污染与资源利用、资源供给能力、环境纳污能力、人类社会支持能力、产品交换等7个准则层。运用状态空间模型对惠州市2004~2013年10 a间的海洋生态承载力状况进行定量评价。结果显示:惠州市海洋生态承载力呈现波动变化,部分年份出现超载情况。2004~2008年,环境污染与资源利用是海洋生态系统主要的压力,2009年开始,经济发展成为主要压力。支持力水平总体平稳,且不断改善。利用系统动力学模型预测在现有发展模式下,由于经济增长过快,废水排放量和固废产生量增加,海洋生态承载力指数将逐年上升,2018~2020年将出现超载现象,为确保海洋生态承载力在可载范围内,惠州市需加快城市化进程,采用集约化增长方式,降低经济增长速度,提高污染物处理率。 Taking Huizhou City as an example, this paper constructs an index system of marine ecological carrying capacity evaluation, which is divided into three target levels of pressure type, supporting force type and regional exchange type, including population, economic development, environmental pollution and resource utilization, resource supply capacity, Environmental pollution capacity, human social support capabilities, product exchange, etc. 7 guidelines. The state space model was used to quantitatively evaluate the state of marine ecological carrying capacity in Huizhou from 2004 to 2013. The results showed that the carrying capacity of marine ecosystem fluctuated in Huizhou City, and overloading occurred in some years. From 2004 to 2008, environmental pollution and resource utilization are the major pressures on marine ecosystems. Since 2009, economic development has become the major pressure. The overall level of support has been steady and improving. Using the system dynamics model predicts that under the current development mode, the marine ecological carrying capacity index will increase year by year due to the rapid economic growth, waste water discharge and solid waste generation, and overloading will occur from 2018 to 2020. In order to ensure the ocean Ecological carrying capacity can be carried within the scope of Huizhou need to speed up the process of urbanization, the use of intensive growth, reduce economic growth and improve pollutant disposal rate.