本文通过北京市的农民工样本数据实证分析了农民工定居性迁移决策的影响因素。与之前的有关研究不同,我们使用递归二值probit对模型潜在的内生性进行了处理。文章的结果支持了关于迁移的自选择理论。农民工选择是否在城市定居是一个根据教育水平的正向的自我选择过程,但是在个人能力方面,并没有表现出显著的选择效应。另外,我们发现参与社会保险能够使农民工的定居意愿显著提高,而社会资本似乎并不会对农民工的定居意愿造成影响。 This paper empirically analyzes the influencing factors of migrant workers' settlement migration through sample data of migrant workers in Beijing. Unlike previous studies, we used a recursive binary probit to address the potential endogeneity of the model. The article's results support the theory of self-selection on migration. Migrant workers choose whether or not to settle in the city is a positive self-selection process based on the level of education, but no significant selective effect has been shown on the individual's ability. In addition, we find that participation in social insurance can significantly improve the willingness of migrant workers to settle in while social capital does not appear to affect migrant workers' will to settle.