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目的了解医院2000年-2011年门诊量的趋势,探讨灰色预测模型GM(1,1)在时间序列资料中的应用,建立预测医院月门诊量的时间序列模型,为优化医疗资源配置提供科学的统计学依据。方法根据医院2000年-2011年门诊量数据,应用MATLAB软件建立灰色预测模型并进行模型评价,预测2012年-2014年的门诊量。结果GM(1,1)模型为:^Y(t)=552512.3619e0.1021(t-1)-478343.3619,预测值的相对误差小于20%,模型精度为优(C=0.29,P=1.00),预测效果好,2012年-2014年医院门诊量预测值分别为182612、202243、223984。结论GM(1,1)灰色模型能很好的拟合门诊量的变动趋势,在无外界因素影响的情况下,医院门诊量将会继续上涨。
Objective To understand the trend of the outpatient clinic volume from 2000 to 2011 in the hospital, to explore the application of the gray prediction model GM (1,1) in time series data and to establish a time series model for predicting the monthly outpatient volume of the hospital so as to provide a scientific Statistical basis. Methods Based on outpatient data from 2000 to 2011 in the hospital, a gray prediction model was established and evaluated by MATLAB software to predict the outpatient volume in 2012-2014. Results The GM (1,1) model was as follows: Y (t) = 552512.3619e0.1021 (t-1) -478343.3619, the relative error of prediction was less than 20%, and the model precision was excellent (C = 0.29, P = 1.00) , The prediction effect is good, 2012-2014 hospital outpatient amount forecast values are respectively 182612,202243,223984. Conclusion The GM (1,1) gray model can well fit the changing trend of outpatient volume, and outpatient volume will continue to rise in the absence of external factors.