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近几年,我国房地产行业的发展出现了过度增长以及泡沫堆积的势头。如何去剖析房地产行业的泡沫现象,探索其内生动量;政府在房地产行业中应该扮演怎样的角色并且实施怎样的经济政策来维持房地产的可持续发展是本文建模分析的重点。府在房地产行业中应该扮演怎样的角色并且实施怎样的经济政策来维持房地产的可持续发展是本文建模分析的重点。首先,文章以传统经济学理论为切入点,建立了房地产行业的供给与需求线性模型,结论表明:房地产需求与价格正相关,房地产供给则呈现一定的刚性,这与传统的市场供求理论相偏离,说明传统的供需理论已难以解释我国房地产行业不均衡现象。其次,总结了学术界的观点后,本文从全新的角度出发,提出“中国的房地产行业是政府主导的政策性市场”的大胆假设,通过建立向量自回归VAR模型来研究房价与政府行为的互动关系,模型表明,我国的房地产行业确实较大程度地受到政府经济政策的影响,佐证了模型的假设。最后,基于我国房地产行业是政策主导市场的论点,本文进一步建立了房地产可持续发展模型,并构造了合理增速和健康基准两个全新指标对房地产行业的增长速度的合理性进行评判。最终探究出三种改变房地产增速的政策路径,经过对比后总结出一套可以保持房地产行业可持续发展的最优政策方案。
In recent years, the development of China’s real estate industry has seen excessive growth and the momentum of the bubble accumulation. How to analyze the bubble phenomenon in the real estate industry and explore its endogenous momentum; what role the government should play in the real estate industry and what kind of economic policy to implement to maintain the sustainable development of real estate is the focus of this paper’s modeling and analysis. What kind of role the government should play in the real estate industry and how to implement the economic policy in order to maintain the sustainable development of the real estate are the key points in this paper. First of all, based on the traditional economic theory, the article establishes a linear model of the supply and demand of the real estate industry. The conclusion shows that the real estate demand is positively correlated with the price and the real estate supply shows a certain rigidity, which deviates from the traditional market supply and demand theory , Indicating that the traditional theory of supply and demand has been difficult to explain the imbalance in China’s real estate industry. Secondly, after summarizing the views of academia, this article from a new perspective, put forward the bold assumption that “China’s real estate industry is the government-led policy market ”, through the establishment of vector autoregressive VAR model to study the housing prices and government behavior The model shows that the real estate industry in our country is indeed influenced to a large extent by the government’s economic policies and the assumptions of the model are corroborated. Finally, based on the argument that China’s real estate industry is dominated by the policy market, this article further establishes the model of sustainable development of real estate and constructs two new indexes of reasonable growth rate and health benchmark to judge the rationality of the growth rate of the real estate industry. Finally, we explore three policy paths to change the growth rate of real estate. After comparison, we conclude with a set of optimal policies that can maintain the sustainable development of the real estate industry.