定性历史研究方法的不足是显然的。最经典的例子之一是晚清于1906—1907年启动的预备立宪改革,由于在时间上正好是清政府垮台之前的5年左右,所以,尽管严谨研究会告诉我们是清政府启动宪政改革太晚而最后难以挽救其命运,但还是有不少人愿意下“宪政导致政权灭亡”这样的因果结论,就好像看到阿炳是瞎子,所以就下结论“如果想拉好二胡,就先要把眼睛弄瞎”。而科学严谨的量化研究当然 The deficiencies of qualitative history research methods are obvious. One of the most classic examples is the constitutional constitutional reform started in 1906-1907 in the late Qing dynasty. Since the time just happened about five years before the fall of the Qing government, although the rigorous study would tell us that the Qing government started the constitutional reform too However, there are still many people who are willing to make causal conclusions such as “the constitutional government has caused the regime to perish,” as if seeing Bing as a blind man, so he concluded: “If you want to pull the erhu well, Blind eyes first ”. Of course, the scientific rigor of quantitative research