对汉中市１９８９～１９９８ 年油菜菌核病发病株率、病情指数与当年气象因素、上年菌核残留量的多元回归分析，筛选出影响病情指数Ｙ 的主要气象因子为：ｘ１，４ 月上旬降雨量；ｘ２，４ 月下旬降雨量；ｘ３，４ 月下旬平均气温。与上年菌核残留量无显著相关。回归检验ｙ的历史符合率达１００％ 。对预测预报具有实际作用 The main meteorological factors influencing the disease index Y were screened from multivariate regression analysis on the incidence of sclerotinia sclerotiorum, disease index and current year meteorological factors in Hanzhong from 1989 to 1998 and the last year’s sclerotium residue: Rainfall; x2 rainfall in late April; x3 average temperature in late April. No significant correlation with the last year’s sclerotia residues. Regression test y historical coincidence rate of 100%. It has a practical effect on forecasting and forecasting