Analysis of China’s Foreign Trade Growth and Discussion of Related Policies

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China’sforeign trade experienced threeconsecutive years of super-speed growth in 2002- 2004, even though the country was stricken by the SARS epidemic in 2003 and power shortages in 2004. What hasgone beyond expectations is that the exports trade still grew with momentum after the central governmentlowered theexportrebate ratesbyan average of3 percentagepoints, starting from January2004. Such growth momentum isapparently associated with external demand and the performance ofthedomestic macroeconomy, and even more associated with a seriesof support policies. Thispaper tries to raise issuesissues associated with these policies on the basis of an analysis of foreign trade performance in 2002-2004, in order to enhance understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of these policies, and to recommend a new line ofthoughtfor improving policy arrangements for the growth of import and export trade and for the harmonious development of the macroeconomy. China’sforeign trade experienced threeconsecutive years of super-speed growth in 2002- 2004, even though the country was stricken by the SARS epidemic in 2003 and power shortages in 2004. What hasgone beyond expectations is that the exports trade still grew with momentum after the central governmentlowered theexportrebate ratesbyan average of3pointpoints, starting from January2004. Such growth momentum isapparently associated with external demand and the performance ofthedomestic macroeconomy, and even more associated with a seriesof support policies. Thispaper tries to raise issuesissues associatedwith these policies on the basis of an analysis of foreign trade performance in 2002-2004, in order to enhance understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of these policies, and to recommend a new line ofthought for improving policy arrangements for the growth of import and export trade and for the harmonious development of the macroeconomy .
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