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在统计杭州市区2000—2009年10年间实施的土地开发项目(居住类、工业类、商业类)基础上,结合人口普查数据,以街道乡镇为最小单元,选取合适自变量,建立人口回归模型,利用二阶段最小平方法探寻影响人口变化的主要因素。结果发现,杭州市区居住用地和工业用地的大量开发促使市区常住人口大量增长,且居住用地的影响更为显著。在此基础上,依据人口与土地开发相关特征指标,借用SPSS系统聚类分析法对街道单元进行分类,从街道层面探讨土地开发给人口空间变化带来的不同影响。研究发现,土地开发促使杭州主城区外沿和副城地区形成人口快速增长圈;居住类用地开发促使主城区中心部分街道人口回升;工业类用地开发刺激东部组团人口增长;主城区外围土地开发将在未来进一步促进人口增长和蔓延。
Based on the statistics of the land development projects (residential, industrial and commercial) implemented in Hangzhou during the 10 years from 2000 to 2009, taking the census data of towns and villages as the minimum unit and selecting appropriate variables to establish the population regression model , Two-stage least-squares method to explore the main factors affecting population changes. The results showed that the large-scale development of residential land and industrial land in Hangzhou promoted the growth of permanent population in urban areas and the impact of residential land use was more significant. On the basis of this, according to the characteristic indexes of population and land development, we use the cluster analysis of SPSS to classify the street units, and discuss the different impacts of land development on the spatial change of population from the street level. The study found that the land development led to the rapid population growth in the outer and inner city areas of Hangzhou; the development of residential land use promoted the population growth in the central part of the main urban area; the development of industrial land use stimulated the population growth in the eastern area; the land development in the periphery of the main urban area In the future to further promote population growth and spread.