之三是美国著名地震学家艾伦对1982年地震预报的回顾评述,着重涉及美国的情况,认为短期地震预报比五年前美国“国家地震灾害减轻计划”开始时所预期的进展要慢,而长期预报和灾害评定的进展却快得多;但短期预报的目标是现实的,研究工作仍应奋力进行,而在科学策略上应作某些改变。 The third is a retrospective review of 1982 Earthquake Prediction by the famous American seismologist Alan. It focuses on the situation of the United States. He believes that the short-term earthquake prediction is slower than the expected start of the National Earthquake Mitigation Plan of the United States five years ago. However, progress in long-term forecasts and disaster assessments is much faster; however, the objective of short-term forecasts is realistic and research efforts should be vigorously pursued with some changes in the scientific strategy.