在Blanchard和Quah(1989)的提出的框架下,建立一个四变量的结构向量自回归模型SVAR(Structural Vector Autoregression Models),讨论了石油价格上涨冲击对实际汇率波动的影响程度,以及需求、供给、货币这些宏观因素对汇率波动的影响。实证结果表明,石油价格冲击是导致实际有效汇率发生变化的原因之一,石油价格冲击长期会引起实际汇率的一定程度升值,但远不及需求和供给的影响程度大。因此,在油价持续高企的情形下人民币实际汇率水平上升某种程度上有助于减缓当前人民币的升值压力,但摆脱国内需求不足,才是缓解人民币升值压力的主要办法。 Under the framework proposed by Blanchard and Quah (1989), a four-variable structural vector autoregression model (SVAR) is established to discuss the impact of the impact of rising oil prices on the real exchange rate volatility, as well as the demand, supply, The impact of these macro factors on currency fluctuations. The empirical results show that the impact of oil price shocks is one of the reasons leading to the change of real effective exchange rate. The impact of oil price will cause the appreciation of real exchange rate to a certain extent in a long time, but it is far less than the impact of demand and supply. Therefore, when the oil price continues to rise, the rise of RMB real exchange rate will help alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation to some extent. However, getting rid of the domestic demand is the main measure to ease the pressure of RMB appreciation.