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本文针对粮食最低收购价格问题,从粮食种植面积、粮食市场价格、农民收入水平等方面进行分析,建立数学模型,分析现行政策的效果。采用文献查阅法、运用Delphi方法和积因子求权重层次分析法,从农业生产涉及到的人力、物力、生产积极性、社会环境以及农业保障等方面,对安徽、江苏、山东、黑龙江农业最低收购政策的效果进行评价。结果发现粮食最低收购价政策执行前,评价模型给出的数据显示粮食生产有走下坡路的趋势,但是在中晚稻最低收购价的开始执行以来,执行区内粮食生产趋势开始逆转,并且持续向好,2008年以后都处于中上水平运行。而作为中晚稻最低收购价非执行区的山东,虽然有所好转,但却反复不定。结合前面问题的分析,提出一系列切实可行的调控粮食种植优化决策和建议。
In this paper, according to the issue of the minimum purchase price of grain, this paper analyzes the grain planting area, the grain market price and the income level of farmers, establishes the mathematical model and analyzes the effect of the current policy. Using literature review method, Delphi method and product factor analysis, this paper analyzes the agricultural minimum purchase policy of Anhui, Jiangsu, Shandong and Heilongjiang from the aspects of manpower, material resources, production enthusiasm, social environment and agricultural security in agricultural production The effect of evaluation. The results showed that before the implementation of the grain minimum purchase price policy, the data given by the evaluation model showed that the grain production had a downward trend, but the grain production trend in the implementation zone began to reverse and continued to improve since the implementation of the minimum purchase price for late rice , After 2008 are in the upper level of operation. As the minimum purchase price of mid-late rice non-executive area of Shandong, although some improvement, but repeatedly uncertain. Combined with the analysis of the previous problems, a series of practical decisions and suggestions on grain cropping optimization are put forward.