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目的:通过对2005-2014年新疆地区乙肝新发病例数据的建模分析,为制定疫情防控策略提供科学参考。方法:利用传染病动力学的方法构建乙肝动力学模型,并对模型进行数值模拟和定量分析,显示疾病的发展过程,预测乙肝未来的发展变化趋势,分析影响乙肝流行的关键因素。结果:建立了乙肝的传播动力学模型,给出相关参数值,结果发现模型拟合值与实际发病数基本吻合,基本再生数R0=4.11(95%CI:4.00-4.26),该模型预测到2020年乙肝累积发病数将会达到615 550例。结论:新疆乙肝未来几年仍有上升趋势,相关部门应加强乙肝健康教育宣传力度,做好疫苗接种工作等综合性干预措施来控制乙肝的蔓延。
OBJECTIVE: To provide a scientific reference for the formulation of epidemic prevention and control strategies through the modeling of new cases of hepatitis B from 2005 to 2014 in Xinjiang. Methods: The model of Hepatitis B virus was constructed by using the method of infectious disease dynamics. The model was numerically simulated and quantitatively analyzed. The development of the disease was predicted. The future development and trend of hepatitis B were predicted. The key factors affecting the epidemic of hepatitis B were analyzed. Results: The propagation dynamics model of hepatitis B was established, and the related parameter values were given. The results showed that the fitted value of the model was basically consistent with the actual incidence, the basic reproductive number was R0 = 4.11 (95% CI: 4.00-4.26) The cumulative incidence of hepatitis B in 2020 will reach 615 550 cases. Conclusion: There is still an upward trend of hepatitis B in Xinjiang in the coming years. Relevant departments should strengthen the publicity of health education of hepatitis B and do a good job in comprehensive vaccination and other interventions to control the spread of hepatitis B.