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制造业产业结构的优化调整既是“中国制造2025”的核心内容之一,亦是推动“供给侧改革”的重要抓手,但学术界往往未能充分利用开放经济的相关信息和技术水平的贡献作用,并缺乏对要素结构进行相关配套分析。为此,本文以中国制造业两位数行业为样本,对其进行产业结构的系统性优化,即先分析了2015年产出结构的优化调整目标及节能减排潜力,然后分析了各种要素投入的联动配套问题,并重点针对资本存量要素,测算并分析它的产能利用率状况。研究结果表明:(1)制造业产出结构具备较大的优化调整空间,可以为“经济增长和环境保护”双赢的实现提供支撑,能够让2015年能源强度和碳强度比原始值分别降低18.08%和17.42%。(2)为降低要素错配,制造业产出结构优化调整后需要各种投入要素进行联动配套,特别是资本存量水平需要有较大幅度的变动。(3)资本要素产能利用率水平的测算结果则进一步显示,受经济增速放缓和投资惯性的影响,2015年制造业产能利用率(56.14%)远低于国民经济十二五规划中后期(2008—2010)的均值水平(73.27%),而投入要素联动配套后的产能利用率则可以回升至后一水平。
The optimization and adjustment of the industrial structure of manufacturing industry is not only one of the core contents of “Made in China 2025”, but also an important starting point for promoting “supply-side reform”. However, academics often fail to make full use of the relevant information of the open economy Technical level of contribution to the role, and the lack of relevant supporting elements of the structure analysis. Therefore, based on the double-digit manufacturing industry in China, this paper systematically optimizes the industrial structure by first analyzing the optimization and adjustment targets of output structure in 2015 and the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction, and then analyzes various factors Investment linkage support, and focus on the elements of capital stock, measure and analyze its capacity utilization. The results show that: (1) The output structure of manufacturing industry has greater space for optimization and adjustment, which can provide a support for the realization of a win-win situation of “economic growth and environmental protection” and enable the energy intensity and carbon intensity of 2015 to be lower than the original values Reduce 18.08% and 17.42%. (2) In order to reduce the mismatch of factors, the output structure of manufacturing industry needs various input elements to be coordinated and optimized after it is adjusted. In particular, the level of capital stock needs to be greatly changed. (3) The calculation of capacity utilization rate of capital factor further shows that the utilization rate of manufacturing capacity in 2015 (56.14%) is much lower than the latter part of the national 12th five-year plan for national economy due to the impact of economic slowdown and investment inertia (2008-2010) average level (73.27%), while the input elements of production capacity utilization can be linked back to the latter level.