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外贸货物运输需求量预测是规划内地对外连接的港口、铁路、公路的基础。本文根据外贸进出口统计数据特点 ,分省区建立了具有不同特征、考虑多种影响因素的外贸进出口额预测模型 ,分品类将进出口额转换为集装箱和散货运输需求量 ,进而转换为外贸货物运输 O- D量 ;在此基础上 ,应用多路径概率分配结合容量限制模型 ,在全国综合运输网络上进行外贸货运需求量分配 ,提出内地对外连接的港口、铁路、公路外贸货运需求量预测方案。
The forecast of the demand for foreign trade in freight transport is the basis for planning ports, railways and highways connected to the Mainland. According to the characteristics of the statistics of foreign trade import and export, the model of foreign trade import and export with different characteristics and different influential factors has been established in different provinces and autonomous regions. The sub-categories convert the import and export volume into the demand for container and bulk shipping, and then convert to On the basis of this, we use the multi-path probability distribution combined with the capacity constraint model to allocate the demand for foreign trade freight on the national integrated transport network and put forward the demand for the ports, railways and highways for foreign trade connected to the Mainland Forecast program.