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2008年汶川“5·12”地震后,汶川震区内大量新、老泥石流沟的泥石流活动频度增加,致使泥石流堰塞湖的形成几率也随之增大。通常泥石流所形成的堰塞体稳定性较差,从形成至溃决通常在几小时内发生,人工工程干预的可能性小。因此,做好堰塞湖溃决洪水影响区域评估和溃决洪水应急预案,成为必要且有效的减灾手段之一。但泥石流堰塞湖的溃决洪水既不同于一般意义的洪水,也不同于人工大坝的溃决,是过去应急预案研究中较少涉及的灾种。选择汶川磨子沟作为研究对象,在泥石流堰塞湖溃决危险性评估基础上提出溃决洪水应急预案的编制原则和方法:首先确定泥石流堰塞湖可能溃决的最大洪峰流量、淹没高度、泛滥范围和持续时间;其后,实地调查居民点,圈定洪水淹没范围和危险区人口数,并根据地形条件制定可能的撤退路线;最后,结合政府部门的行政安排,制定险情通报程序、险情发生安全保障措施和预案启动、结束的时间节点。试图为其余泥石流堰塞湖溃决洪水危害应急预案制定提供借鉴,提升应对突发泥石流堰塞湖溃决事件的效率。
After the Wenchuan earthquake and the May 12 earthquake in 2008, a large number of new and old mud-rock ditches in the Wenchuan earthquake area increased the frequency of debris flows, resulting in an increased probability of formation of mud-rock dams. Usually debris flow formed by the barrier body stability is poor, from the formation to the rupture usually occurs within a few hours, the possibility of manual intervention is small. Therefore, it is one of the necessary and effective means of disaster reduction to do a good job of assessing the area affected by floods in the dammed lake and flood contingency plans. However, the debacle flood of the debris flow dam lake is not only different from floods in general, but also different from the collapse of artificial dams. It is a kind of disaster that is rarely involved in the research of past emergency plans. Based on the assessment of the danger of the collapse of the debris lake, the principles and methods of compiling flood emergency plan are proposed: First, the maximum peak flow, submergence height, flooding range and Duration; then, on-the-spot investigation of settlements, delineation of flood inundation area and the number of people in the danger zone, and according to the terrain conditions to develop a possible route of withdrawal; Finally, with the administrative arrangements of government departments, the development of risk communication procedures, safety protection measures And plans to start, the end of the time node. Trying to provide reference for the formulation of contingency plans for the flood damage caused by other debris flow dam landslides and to improve the efficiency of dealing with the sudden landslides caused by sudden landslides.