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文章基于我国宏观经济数据分析,利用时间序列回归、Granger因果关系检验和脉冲响应函数的方法对我国社会保险基金收入和经济增长之间的关系进行了研究。实证结果显示,社会保险基金收入增长能引起社会经济发展,但社会经济发展对社会保险基金增收作用不明显。社会保险基金收入对经济增长具有较大且持久的作用,经济增长对社保基金收入增长的影响微弱且短暂。文章对可能产生这种现象的原因进行了探讨,并提出建议。
Based on the analysis of macroeconomic data in China, this paper studies the relationship between the income of social insurance funds and economic growth by using time series regression, Granger causality test and impulse response function. The empirical results show that the income growth of social insurance funds can cause social and economic development, but the social and economic development does not have obvious effect on the income increase of social insurance funds. The income of social insurance funds has a larger and lasting effect on economic growth, and the impact of economic growth on the growth of social security funds is weak and short-lived. The article explores the possible reasons for this phenomenon, and make recommendations.