论文部分内容阅读
通过对我国工业经济运行态势和本轮景气波动特点的分析,得出以下结论:我国工业一致合成指数的走势表明我国工业经济于2011年初呈现的景气回落局面持续至今年6月,从7月开始经济景气开始呈现小幅回升态势,并且根据先行合成指数的走势和平均超前期计算,我国工业经济景气小幅震荡上行的态势在短期内仍将继续。进一步观察我国工业领域主要经济指标的变动特征可以发现我国工业经济本轮景气波动具有如下特点:(1)2011年以来我国工业生产增速呈现持续低位运行态势;(2)产品价格震荡上行,工业企业经济效益却持续下滑;(3)产量增速趋缓,产销率逐步回升,工业企业“去库存化”现象显现。
Through the analysis of the trend of industrial economy in our country and the characteristics of the current round of economic fluctuations, the following conclusions are drawn: The trend of China’s industrial composite index shows that the economic downturn in China’s industrial economy started in early June and lasts from June to July. The economic climate began to show a slight upward trend. According to the trend of the leading composite index and the average lead time, the slight upward trend of the industrial economy in our country will continue in the short term. To further observe the changing characteristics of China’s major economic indicators in the industrial field, it can be found that the current economic fluctuations in China’s industrial economy have the following characteristics: (1) the growth rate of industrial production in our country has been in a sustained low position since 2011; (2) The economic efficiency of enterprises continued to decline; (3) the output growth slowed down and the production and marketing rate gradually rose, and the phenomena of “de-stocking” of industrial enterprises appeared.