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本文根据历史唯物主义和实证主义方法,对比巴西、美国、中国发展经验,从中归纳证伪“中等收入陷阱”理论的普世性。然后运用辩证唯物主义和交叉科学方法分析中国二元经济结构与刘易斯二元经济结构的差异性以及“刘易斯转折点”的可变性,提出八大理论命题。根据这八大命题、政治经济学相关理论以及历史反证方法,演绎地证明:第一,不同国家经济增长率变化有各种不同条件因素和决定因素,而且表面的发展减缓并不反映本质原因的一致性;第二,把运用不完全归纳法于拉美经验所得到的“中等收入陷阱”“命题”套用在分析中国经济发展上,会产生逻辑合理性和可靠性问题;第三,中国经济发展模式存在十大陷阱,它们才是中国发展模式所面临的主要挑战,而非世界银行所提出的“中等收入陷阱”。
Based on historical materialism and positivism, this article contrasts the development experiences of Brazil, the United States and China to summarize the universality of the theory of “middle-income trap”. Then we use dialectical materialism and interdisciplinary analysis to analyze the differences between China’s dual economic structure and Lewis’s dual economic structure and the variability of the “Lewis turning point,” and put forward eight theoretical propositions. According to these eight propositions, the relevant theories of political economy and the historical counter-evidence method, it is deductively proven that firstly, there are various conditions and determinants of the economic growth rate changes in different countries, and the apparent slowdown in development does not reflect the essential reasons. Secondly, the application of incomplete inductive method to the “middle-income trap” proposition obtained by Latin American experience will exert logical rationality and reliability when analyzing the economic development in China; thirdly, There are ten pitfalls in China’s economic development model. These are the main challenges facing China’s development model, not the “middle income trap” proposed by the World Bank.