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由于天然气的勘探、输送和用户基数主要取决于波动的经济因素,因而预测世界天然气供给是很困难的。我们最近开展的研究表明,具有一个完整生产周期的常规哈伯特(Hubbert)模型不适合于预测大多数产气国家的天然气开采趋势。本文给出了我们所做的世界常规天然气供给预测到2050年的预测结果。我们开发了一个“多周期哈伯特”方法精确模拟了各产气国的天然气开采历史。然后用所有国家的模型预测世界范围内未来天然气的产量。我们给出了周期模拟方法的简单形式,很容易展示两个或多个周期的开采数据用来模拟和汇总这些跨地区或世界范围的模型。我们也开发和分析了一些组织的供给模型(如石油输出国组织(OPEC)、经济合作与发展组织(OECD)、欧洲联盟(EU)和国家能源机构(IEA)。预测结果表明,世界天然气供给将在2014—2017年间达到99×10~(12)ft~3/年的产量高峰,然后以每年1％的速率下降。地区分析表明,一些地区的产气量不久将达到高峰,北美的产气量现在(1999年)就处于高峰。西欧产气量预计在2002年达到高峰,前苏联(FSU)和中东国家约占有世界最终可采天然气的60％,它们将是未来天然气供给的主要国家。
Since natural gas exploration, transportation and user base depend largely on economic factors of volatility, it is difficult to predict the world’s natural gas supply. Our recent research shows that a conventional Hubbert model with a complete production cycle is not suitable for forecasting natural gas production trends in most gas-producing countries. This article gives the forecast for the world’s conventional natural gas supply forecast for 2050 to the world. We have developed a “multi-cycle Hubbert” method that accurately simulates the history of gas production in each producing country. The models of all countries are then used to predict the future production of natural gas in the world. We present a simple form of a periodic simulation method that makes it easy to show that two or more cycles of mining data are used to model and summarize these trans-regional or world-wide models. We have also developed and analyzed supply models for some organizations such as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the European Union (EU) and the National Energy Agency (IEA). The forecast shows that the world’s natural gas supply Will reach a production peak of 99 × 10-12 ft 3 / yr between 2014 and 2017 and then decrease at a rate of 1% per annum. Regional analysis shows that gas production in some areas will soon peak and gas production in North America Now peaked in 1999. Western Europe is expected to peak in 2002, with the former Soviet Union (FSU) and the Middle East accounting for about 60% of the world’s final recoverable natural gas, which will be the major source of future natural gas supplies.