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应用交互式道路安全设计模型(IHSDM)对11类高速公路进行事故预测,并对比了预测事故数与实际事故数,给出了基本事故预测模型与线形指标修正系数,构建了一组IHSDM事故预测改进模型,分析了线形指标的敏感性与线形指标的变化对预测事故率的影响,并计算了各类高速公路线形指标的安全取值范围。分析结果表明:采用IHSDM预测的高速公路事故数小于实际事故数,最小误差为13%,最大误差为52%;改进模型事故总数预测值与实际值的相对误差小于10%,具体路段上的皮尔逊相关系数不小于0.60,均方根误差小于0.30,平均相对误差小于30%;事故率对各线形指标敏感性由高到低依次为直线段长度、纵坡坡度、平曲线偏角、平曲线半径、竖曲线半径。可见,与IHSDM相比,改进模型具有更高的精度和更好的适用性。
The IHSDM is used to predict the accident of 11 types of expressways. The number of predicted accidents and actual accidents is compared. The basic accident prediction model and linear index correction coefficient are given. A set of IHSDM accident prediction The model is improved. The influence of the linear index sensitivity and the linear index change on the predicted accident rate is analyzed, and the safe range of the linear index for each type of expressway is calculated. The results show that the number of highway accidents predicted by IHSDM is less than the actual number of accidents, the minimum error is 13% and the maximum error is 52%. The relative error between the predicted value and the actual value of the total number of improved models is less than 10% The correlation coefficient is not less than 0.60, the root mean square error is less than 0.30 and the average relative error is less than 30%. The sensitivity of the accident rate to each linear index from high to low is linear length, longitudinal gradient, flat curve angle, flat curve Radius, vertical curve radius. Can be seen, compared with IHSDM, improved model with higher accuracy and better applicability.