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本文在文献[1]的基础上,选用月球运动的18.613年和8.85年周期,计算出与之相应的“地震韵律系列”,据此及利用鲜水河地震带1725—1986年度(每年3月至下年2月)期间各年度 M≥5级最大地震资料,计算了1927—2000年度地震活动等级“Ⅰ”。分析1927—1986年度Ⅰ与 M≥6或 M≥5.6级地震的关系,确定3<Ⅰ≤4的强活动年度及其前一年,后二年为划分该带强震活跃时段的定量指标据此预测该带本世纪内下一个强震活跃时段。
Based on the literature [1], this paper selects the cycles of 18.613 and 8.55 years of lunar motion to calculate the “Seismological Prosody Series” corresponding to it and based on this, and using the Xianshuihe seismic belt in 1725-1986 To February next year) during each year M ≥ 5-level maximum seismic data, calculated in 1927-2000 seismic activity level “Ⅰ.” Based on the analysis of the relationship between Ⅰ and M≥6 or M≥5.6 earthquakes in 1927-1986, the strong activity period of 3 <Ⅰ≤4 and its previous year and the latter two years are determined to quantitatively indicate the active period of the strong earthquake This forecast will take the next active season of strong earthquakes this century.