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1996-2003年我国央行基础货币和准备金率均逐年提高,2004年上半年则下降。中央银行对基础货币的管理与稳定宏观经济的目标不完全一致,对法定准备率的调整实际上也不起作用。由于存在行政关系,通过控制商业银行贷款规模,中央银行也参与超额准备率的决定。国有商业银行具有降低超额准备率的倾向。中央银行对商业银行贷款规模的管理成为制约超额准备率、实际准备率的主导因素。因此,我国货币供给具有外生性。但是,中央银行对贷款规模的管理会对商业银行的经营状况造成不利影响,并推迟国有商业银行市场化改革的进程。
From 1996 to 2003, the base currency and reserve ratio of China’s central bank increased year by year and dropped in the first half of 2004. The central bank’s management of the monetary base is not entirely consistent with the goal of stabilizing the macroeconomic level, and the adjustment of the statutory preparatory rate actually does not work. Due to the existence of administrative relations, the Central Bank also participates in the decision of excess reserve ratio by controlling the scale of commercial bank loans. State-owned commercial banks have the tendency of reducing the excess reserve rate. The management of the scale of commercial bank loans by the Central Bank has become the dominant factor restricting the excess reserve ratio and the actual reserve ratio. Therefore, China’s money supply is exogenous. However, the management by the central bank of the scale of loans will adversely affect the operation of commercial banks and postpone the marketization reform of state-owned commercial banks.