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通胀预期测度是通胀预期管理的前提。文章基于通货膨胀持久性特征,在无套利假设下,将实际通胀率这一宏观变量纳入传统的因子模型中,并运用银行间债券市场收益率数据对我国居民通胀预期进行了估计,结果显示我国居民通胀预期并不完全满足理性预期假设,而是与实际通胀之间存在有规律的系统性偏差,短期实际利率的变动是造成偏差的主要原因。文章认为通过强化货币政策前瞻性可以消除这种偏差,从而抑制实际通货膨胀水平。
Measurement of inflation expectations is the prerequisite for inflation expectations management. Based on the persistence characteristics of inflation, under the assumption of no arbitrage, the article takes the macro-variable of real inflation rate into the traditional factor model and estimates the inflationary expectancy of residents in China using the inter-bank bond market yield data. The result shows that China Residents inflation expectations do not fully meet the rational expectation hypothesis, but there is a systematic and systematic deviation from the actual inflation. The change of short-term real interest rates is the main reason for the deviation. The article believes that by reinforcing the forward-looking monetary policy can eliminate this bias, thereby curbing the actual level of inflation.