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本文通过计算国际储备适度性指标指出,近20年间东亚经济体呈现出大量囤积国际储备的现象。通过分析,文章推断东亚经济体囤积国际储备的重要原因之一是在重商主义动机下的非合作博弈作用的结果。由于东亚经济体大多采取出口导向战略,如果一国囤积储备就会使其本币贬值,改善竞争力,刺激出口。这种行为会诱使其他出口导向战略的国家进行相同的竞争性储备囤积,从而形成重商主义的国际储备囤积非合作博弈,结果导致各个经济体的国际储备攀比式上升。文中通过模型及中日韩三国的案例对该推断进行了验证。
By calculating the index of international reserve adequacy, this paper points out that in the recent 20 years, the East Asian economies have shown a lot of hoarding of international reserves. Through the analysis, one of the important reasons why the article deduces the accumulation of international reserves in East Asian economies is the result of non-cooperative game under the mercantilist motivation. Because most of the East Asian economies adopt an export-oriented strategy, if a country hoards its reserves, it will depreciate its own currency, improve its competitiveness and stimulate exports. Such behavior would induce other export-oriented countries to accumulate the same competitive reserves, thus forming a mercantilist international reserve hoarding non-cooperative game, resulting in an increase in the international reserves of various economies. In this paper, the inference is verified through the model and the cases of China, Japan and South Korea.